Donald J. Trump the 45th President of the United States is, as of Saturday, April 15th, enjoying a distinct polling lead against Democrat incumbent Joe Biden in the upcoming 2024 presidential race.
According to the RealClearPolitics national polling average, Trump presently outperforms Biden by 1.7%. In the most recent conservative-leaning poll from Rasmussen Reports, he held a 7 point advantage, while the more left-leaning YouGov gave him a 1 point lead. The truth likely lies somewhere between.
John Nolte, writing for Breitbart News noted , “In 2020, Biden (allegedly) beat Trump by 4.5 points nationally. Polling at the time, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) national average, suggested Trump would lose by 7.2 points. In other words, Trump out-performed the polling.”
He further observed that for the entirety of the 2020 race, Trump never outperformed Biden in the RCP average. Trump closed the gap to four points but never overtook Biden in the polling average.
Against fellow Republicans in a potential primary race, Trump is soundly outperforming in every state polled since his indictment as reported by Interactive Polls on Twitter.
2024 GOP Primary State Polling (April 14)
KENTUCKY:
Trump — 62% (+39)
DeSantis — 23%
Haley — 4%IOWA:
Trump — 54% (+30)
DeSantis — 24%
Haley — 14%GEORGIA:
Trump — 51% (+21)
DeSantis — 30%
Haley — 4%Trump has led in EVERY State poll since his indictment (see the chart) pic.twitter.com/K56HEl9C51
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 14, 2023
During his remarks at the NRA Convention, Trump described his polling in a Morning Consult survey released Friday morning taking particular note of the poor performance of former Vice President Mike Pence, as well as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley who both polled around 5%.
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As reported by Breitbart, even the polls skewed furthest to the left show Trump performing well. Marquette shows him tied with Biden, while Quinnipiac shows Biden up by a mere two points.
Furthermore, as Biden is the sitting and very unpopular incumbent president, there is no way for him to stay under the radar or ‘in his basement’ as he did during the 2020 campaign. His performance is out there for the nation to see.
The polling could be expected to be quite competitive. But for Biden to be showing cracks so early on, does not bode well for the aging Democrat.
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