A recent poll out of New Hampshire has delivered a seismic shock to the Biden campaign. The survey, conducted from May 15-20 with 862 registered voters, reveals a startling tie between presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump and President Biden in The Granite State. This unexpected turn of events suggests that Trump could potentially flip the state, marking the first time a Republican would secure a victory in New Hampshire since 2000.
The survey found that 36.6 percent of respondents would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while only 36.5 percent said they would vote for the incumbent president. An additional 14.6 percent said they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 12.4 percent said they would vote for "none of these."
The poll's findings are a shocking turnaround for Trump in the state and broaden the electoral map for the former president. Trump lost New Hampshire in 2020 by over seven points (45.36 percent to Biden's 52.71 percent) leading to the state's four electoral votes being awarded to the Democrat ticket. However, Trump nearly won the Northeastern state in 2016, just under 3,000 votes shy of flipping the state to the GOP.
The devastating poll numbers for the Biden campaign come as the president is scheduled for a campaign event in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Tuesday and after the Biden administration announced $3 million in grants "to rehabilitate and revitalize communities in New Hampshire."
"This helps to put President Biden's visit this week into greater context, as that sound you hear is the 2024 battleground map expanding for Donald Trump, seemingly putting New Hampshire in play this fall," GOP strategist Jim Merrill told the New Hampshire Journal.
While President Biden continues to struggle in various swing states, more historically Democrat-leaning states will come into play. New Hampshire joins states like Minnesota and Maine as a potential territory where Trump could pick up more electoral votes and thus not even need to flip one of the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. The 81-year-old Democrat incumbent is only the defense nationwide and his polling numbers are proving it.
According to a recent NYT/Siena College poll, Trump has a double-digit lead in Nevada, defeating Biden by 13 points if the election were held today. The other states in the Sun Belt are just as bad for the Biden campaign, with Trump having a dominant lead of nine in Georgia and six in Arizona. In the Rust Belt, a part of the country that Democrats need to retain the presidency, Trump is still beating Biden in a one-on-one matchup, but within the poll's margin of error. The survey found that Trump beat Biden by three points in Pennsylvania and one point in Wisconsin, while Biden had a narrow lead of one percent in Michigan.
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