Dramatic new polling results from Premise have revealed that 41 percent of Americans polled would vote for 45th President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 election as opposed to incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden who would only capture 34 percent of the vote. And presenting a nightmare scenario for Democrats, Trump even wins from prison. However, should Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) prevail in the GOP primary, the poll shows that he would be defeated by Biden in a single-point race with each candidate barely securing about a third of the vote, 32 to 31 percent.
The Premise results from Five Thirty Eight align closely with intra-party polling according to Timcast News which reported the GOP primary field falling in behind Trump, who sits at 57 percent with DeSantis trailing by a devastating 41-point gap at 16 percent. All other GOP contenders are in single digits and are largely no-factor in the poll.
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There does, however, exist an interesting wrinkle in the poll results which indicate that only a net 69 percent of Republicans would likely continue to support Trump if he were convicted and sent to prison under any of the four indictments currently against him, a seventeen-point drop. Fascinatingly this would give Trump a theoretical net 39 percent of the vote, still enough to defeat Joe Biden's 34 percent. It is important to note, however, that 25 percent of voters were unsure on who they would vote for between Joe Biden and Donald Trump when prompted.
This scenario would present a unique legal situation, of having a man elected president during a prison sentence and likely amidst a contentious appeals process that would likely end with a self-pardon, or potentially a short period of constitutional incapacity under the 25th Amendment, until his pardon could be effectuated, making his selection of a vice president all the more important.
As is typical of many prominent mainstream polls, the Premise oversampled Democrats, as was noted by our colleagues at Timcast News, this could skew the data leftward. However, this makes the findings even more profound suggesting the possibility of an even wider margin of victory for Trump. Furthermore, a startling majority, 55 percent, of self-identified Democrat voters said they believe Biden should not be running for a second term as president.
However, this is belied by the fact that alternate Democrats can't even crack the 25 percent mark with Vice President Kamala Harris leading at 21 percent followed by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with 15 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with 14 percent, and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) with 10 percent. All other Democrats showed at single digits.
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